Good morning! Hope everybody had a great Flower Festival weekend. It's kind of fun, because we live a stone's throw from Ryon Park, and we can walk over to it. The 10 year old kid in me loves seeing a carnival almost in my back yard. The middle aged crank in me is glad to be rid of the traffic...
Let's take a look at some numbers:
Active Listings: 88
Contingent Listings: 39
Pending Listings: 62 (32.8% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 12 (9.5%)
New listings: 11
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
Our inventory is up a little bit again this week, and our pending units dropped off with some closings that happened last week. We have 5.4 months of inventory on the market this morning. I'm thinking that our inventory probably bottomed out a couple of weeks ago, but it's hard to say what's going to happen in the next couple of months.
Later this week I'll come back and take an updated look at our REO activity.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
Focus On South Vandendberg Village
This week I'm continuing to revisit some of the areas that I wrote about earlier this year with an updated look at South Vandenberg Village. If you'd like to go back to my original post and get a description and a little background on the area, click here. In a nutshell, what I'm talking about here covers the traditional 1960ish tract homes that dominate the area. The new construction and condos are tackled in other posts.
If you've even been glancing at this blog in the past few months, you'll know that our inventory has been getting thin. In South Village, it's razor thin. We have a whopping 4, count 'em, 4 houses on the market. That's not new, in fact it's up from 3 houses when I covered this area in March. Of the 4 active listings, two are short sales, none are REO's. One of them, however, is corporate owned - a relocation company is selling it. We don't have any contingent listings there at the moment. We only have one pending sale in the area, and it's a short sale.
As you might guess with the inventory being as low as it has been, we haven't been seeing a lot of sales up there recently. One sale, to be exact, in the past few months. That one was a traditional seller (not an REO or short sale). Because the activity up there has been so light, it's difficult to make an informed opinion of current price trends in the area. The area has historically tracked pretty close to the market as a whole, so I'd say that we're probably looking at pretty stable prices there so far this year.
I haven't decided on a topic for next week yet. The request line is open... If I don't come up with something, I might just revisit REO numbers. It's been a little while since I looked at that.
If you've even been glancing at this blog in the past few months, you'll know that our inventory has been getting thin. In South Village, it's razor thin. We have a whopping 4, count 'em, 4 houses on the market. That's not new, in fact it's up from 3 houses when I covered this area in March. Of the 4 active listings, two are short sales, none are REO's. One of them, however, is corporate owned - a relocation company is selling it. We don't have any contingent listings there at the moment. We only have one pending sale in the area, and it's a short sale.
As you might guess with the inventory being as low as it has been, we haven't been seeing a lot of sales up there recently. One sale, to be exact, in the past few months. That one was a traditional seller (not an REO or short sale). Because the activity up there has been so light, it's difficult to make an informed opinion of current price trends in the area. The area has historically tracked pretty close to the market as a whole, so I'd say that we're probably looking at pretty stable prices there so far this year.
I haven't decided on a topic for next week yet. The request line is open... If I don't come up with something, I might just revisit REO numbers. It's been a little while since I looked at that.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Monday Morning Numbers 6/22/09
Good morning! I hope everyone had a good Father's Day yesterday. I had a good long conversation with my dad back in Illinois yesterday - but then, there are no short conversations with my dad. Let's take a look at this week's numbers:
Active Listings: 83
Contingent Listings: 36
Pending Listings: 70 (37.0% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 9 (7.6%)
New listings: 11
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
Note that this week, I've added a category for new listings.
At least for this week, we have a break in the recent trend of shrinking inventory, we're up slightly over last week. Our contingent listings are down a bit, and pending listings continue to climb. Percentage-wise, this is the highest we've seen pendings since I started tracking these numbers. We have 5.0 months of inventory on the market this morning.
I think we might have hit a low point in inventory for now. In tracking the foreclosure front, we're starting to see a few more properties go back to the bank over the past couple of weeks. We're up to around 65 properties that have been taken back by the banks and not yet listed. We also have around 120 unresolved trustee sales, which has been steadily building. I doubt that this is going to translate to a big spike in inventory, because most of these properties aren't going to stay on the market for very long when they come on. But I do think that we're heading into a stabilization mode in our inventory level, and we'll likely see an increase in active listings up to the 90-100 level in the next couple of months.
Come back later this week, and I'll update South Vandenberg Village for you.
Active Listings: 83
Contingent Listings: 36
Pending Listings: 70 (37.0% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 9 (7.6%)
New listings: 11
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
Note that this week, I've added a category for new listings.
At least for this week, we have a break in the recent trend of shrinking inventory, we're up slightly over last week. Our contingent listings are down a bit, and pending listings continue to climb. Percentage-wise, this is the highest we've seen pendings since I started tracking these numbers. We have 5.0 months of inventory on the market this morning.
I think we might have hit a low point in inventory for now. In tracking the foreclosure front, we're starting to see a few more properties go back to the bank over the past couple of weeks. We're up to around 65 properties that have been taken back by the banks and not yet listed. We also have around 120 unresolved trustee sales, which has been steadily building. I doubt that this is going to translate to a big spike in inventory, because most of these properties aren't going to stay on the market for very long when they come on. But I do think that we're heading into a stabilization mode in our inventory level, and we'll likely see an increase in active listings up to the 90-100 level in the next couple of months.
Come back later this week, and I'll update South Vandenberg Village for you.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Focus on Condos
Back in February I did my first post on our local condo market. If you want to read that post for some background and how I define the category, click here. It's time to revisit the topic and see how the activity has been in this segment of our market over the past few months.
Most of the market has seen a big dip in listing inventory, and active condo listings are down to a somewhat lesser extent. We have 14 active and 6 contingent condo listings on the market today. 4 of these are REO listings, and 12 of them are short sales (including all 6 of the contingent listings). We have 10 pending units, 6 of which are REO's, with no short sales. The REO/short sale activity in this segment is pretty much in line with the market as a whole.
Sales have slowed a bit in the market as a whole for the second quarter, which I've discussed briefly in a couple of the Monday Morning Numbers posts. I don't think that this is due to a lack of buyer activity, but more due to combination of low inventory and longer escrow times. Condos are no exception to this. We only had 6 sold units in the past three months. All six of those were distressed sales - 2 REO's and 4 short sales.
What I'm finding interesting right now is that the average price per square foot of our condos is up from the first quarter of the year by about 20%. Mind you, this is off of a very small sample size, so there's going to be a lot of natural fluctuation in that number. A lot of that jump can be attributed to the specific properties that sold. But in what's been a relatively flat market this year in terms of price, it's interesting to see that large of an increase. We'll see if it holds up.
Next week's focus will probably be South Village unless something else pops up that sounds more interesting.
Most of the market has seen a big dip in listing inventory, and active condo listings are down to a somewhat lesser extent. We have 14 active and 6 contingent condo listings on the market today. 4 of these are REO listings, and 12 of them are short sales (including all 6 of the contingent listings). We have 10 pending units, 6 of which are REO's, with no short sales. The REO/short sale activity in this segment is pretty much in line with the market as a whole.
Sales have slowed a bit in the market as a whole for the second quarter, which I've discussed briefly in a couple of the Monday Morning Numbers posts. I don't think that this is due to a lack of buyer activity, but more due to combination of low inventory and longer escrow times. Condos are no exception to this. We only had 6 sold units in the past three months. All six of those were distressed sales - 2 REO's and 4 short sales.
What I'm finding interesting right now is that the average price per square foot of our condos is up from the first quarter of the year by about 20%. Mind you, this is off of a very small sample size, so there's going to be a lot of natural fluctuation in that number. A lot of that jump can be attributed to the specific properties that sold. But in what's been a relatively flat market this year in terms of price, it's interesting to see that large of an increase. We'll see if it holds up.
Next week's focus will probably be South Village unless something else pops up that sounds more interesting.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Monday Morning Numbers 6/15/09
Good morning, happy Laker fans! Or at least that's what I read - I'm kind of a sports nut, but I haven't really watched pro basketball much for 15-20 years. I know, that will probably get me run out of the state if I don't keep my mouth shut. Let's get to the numbers:
Active Listings: 79
Contingent Listings: 44
Pending Listings: 67 (35.3% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 2 (1.6%)
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
The recent trends of lower inventory and higher pending units continues this week, although at a slightly slower pace. Despite the fact that we saw 13 new listings come on the market last week, which seems kind of high (I think I'll start tracking that), we dropped a couple of active listings as existing inventory continues to be snapped up. We have 5.3 months of inventory on the market this morning.
Later this week I'm going to update the condo market.
Active Listings: 79
Contingent Listings: 44
Pending Listings: 67 (35.3% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 2 (1.6%)
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
The recent trends of lower inventory and higher pending units continues this week, although at a slightly slower pace. Despite the fact that we saw 13 new listings come on the market last week, which seems kind of high (I think I'll start tracking that), we dropped a couple of active listings as existing inventory continues to be snapped up. We have 5.3 months of inventory on the market this morning.
Later this week I'm going to update the condo market.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Focus On North Vandenberg Village
We're circling back around again on the neighborhood focus posts for the first time this week. I'll start where I started originally, in North Vandenberg Village back in late February. If you'd like to revisit that post and get a feel for the area, you can see it here. Remember that when I run these reports, I don't include condos - those are covered in their own report (next week, if all goes according to plan).
As of today, we have a little less inventory in North Village than we did when I first reported on it, as is true for the entire Lompoc Valley. There are 7 active listings up there now. Only one of those is an REO listing, and 3 are short sales. It looks like maybe only one of those was on the market when I reported on the area in February, so we're seeing the inventory turn over up there.
We have six pending sales. Of those six, two are REO's and one is a short sale. Interestingly, with all of the contingent listings that we have out there, none are in this area. That doesn't mean much, really. Just an oddity.
We've had six sales in the area in the past three months. Of those, one was an REO and two were short sales. Looking at these sales compared to what sold early this year and late last year, it looks like prices have been virtually flat there for a little while now. I think that's pretty much the trend throughout our market right now.
As I reported back in February, this area has held its value during the decline a little better than the market as a whole. This is due in part to a lesser degree of distressed sales than the rest of the area, and also due in part to this being one of the more desirable areas in the Lompoc Valley that is still affordable to first time home buyers. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
As of today, we have a little less inventory in North Village than we did when I first reported on it, as is true for the entire Lompoc Valley. There are 7 active listings up there now. Only one of those is an REO listing, and 3 are short sales. It looks like maybe only one of those was on the market when I reported on the area in February, so we're seeing the inventory turn over up there.
We have six pending sales. Of those six, two are REO's and one is a short sale. Interestingly, with all of the contingent listings that we have out there, none are in this area. That doesn't mean much, really. Just an oddity.
We've had six sales in the area in the past three months. Of those, one was an REO and two were short sales. Looking at these sales compared to what sold early this year and late last year, it looks like prices have been virtually flat there for a little while now. I think that's pretty much the trend throughout our market right now.
As I reported back in February, this area has held its value during the decline a little better than the market as a whole. This is due in part to a lesser degree of distressed sales than the rest of the area, and also due in part to this being one of the more desirable areas in the Lompoc Valley that is still affordable to first time home buyers. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Monday Morning Numbers 6/8/09
Good morning! I've lived in California for 27 years this month now, and in all that time, I'd never been to Sacramento. It was a much prettier town than I thought it would be, and I was lucky that we had some decent weather - I'm told that it can be miserably hot this time of year. But I'm glad to be back home - I'm really not much of a road warrior. Let's take a look at this week's market numbers:
Active Listings: 81
Contingent Listings: 44
Pending Listings: 65 (34.2% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 6 (4.8%)
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
The number of active listings continues to plummet this week, and we still have a lot of contingent and pending units out there. We're at about 5.7 months of inventory this morning. I expect to see that number drop over the next several weeks as we see some of those pending listings turn into sold units. We've had a slower 2nd quarter in terms of sold units, but I think that's more a function of limited inventory than of decreased demand.
Later this week I'm going back for an updated look at North Vandenberg Village activity.
Active Listings: 81
Contingent Listings: 44
Pending Listings: 65 (34.2% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 6 (4.8%)
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
The number of active listings continues to plummet this week, and we still have a lot of contingent and pending units out there. We're at about 5.7 months of inventory this morning. I expect to see that number drop over the next several weeks as we see some of those pending listings turn into sold units. We've had a slower 2nd quarter in terms of sold units, but I think that's more a function of limited inventory than of decreased demand.
Later this week I'm going back for an updated look at North Vandenberg Village activity.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Monday Morning Numbers 6/1/09
It's June already? For real? Yikes. Let's take a look at our market numbers for this week:
Active Listings: 87
Contingent Listings: 40
Pending Listings: 65 (33.9% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 4 (3.2%)
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
We're continuing the recent trend of declining inventory this week. If you would have told me a year ago that we'd be at 87 active listings today, I'd have told you that you went to one too many Dead shows. Pending and contingent listings are pretty close to last week's totals.
I'm not going to make a change yet in the way that I calculate our months of inventory, but I've been toying with the idea of not adding the active and contingent listings together for that calculation. The way I've been calculating it, we are at 5.8 months of inventory this morning. If I take the contingent listings out of the equation, we have 4.0 months. We've seen a big increase in the contingent listings over the past 6 months, as inventory has thinned and short sales have taken a bigger market share. I include contingent listings because they are still technically active, being marketed for backup offers, and because they historically have had a much lower closing rate. I haven't tracked the numbers on them, but it sure seems like fewer of them are falling apart these days. And the ones that do don't come back on the market as often. I'll chew on it.
I'm not sure if I'll have a post later this week. I'll be up in Sacramento for the California Association of Realtors business meetings for a few days. If my schedule allows and something comes to mind for a good topic, I'll post something from up there.
Active Listings: 87
Contingent Listings: 40
Pending Listings: 65 (33.9% of the inventory)
Price changes for the past week: 4 (3.2%)
Click here for the up to date price per square foot chart.
We're continuing the recent trend of declining inventory this week. If you would have told me a year ago that we'd be at 87 active listings today, I'd have told you that you went to one too many Dead shows. Pending and contingent listings are pretty close to last week's totals.
I'm not going to make a change yet in the way that I calculate our months of inventory, but I've been toying with the idea of not adding the active and contingent listings together for that calculation. The way I've been calculating it, we are at 5.8 months of inventory this morning. If I take the contingent listings out of the equation, we have 4.0 months. We've seen a big increase in the contingent listings over the past 6 months, as inventory has thinned and short sales have taken a bigger market share. I include contingent listings because they are still technically active, being marketed for backup offers, and because they historically have had a much lower closing rate. I haven't tracked the numbers on them, but it sure seems like fewer of them are falling apart these days. And the ones that do don't come back on the market as often. I'll chew on it.
I'm not sure if I'll have a post later this week. I'll be up in Sacramento for the California Association of Realtors business meetings for a few days. If my schedule allows and something comes to mind for a good topic, I'll post something from up there.
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