Monday Morning Numbers 1/31/11

Good morning! It's good to be home. I like San Diego, but being on the road without Diane gets to be old pretty quickly. Let's take a look at our market stats for this fine Monday morning:

Active Listings: 118

Contingent Listings: 35

Pending Listings: 40 (20.7% of the inventory)

New listings: 6

Months of inventory: 5.8
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.

Another week with very minimal change in our market stats. New listing activity was slow for the second consecutive week. We're on another one of those plateaus that we seem to find pretty frequently. I suspect that we won't stay this low in listing activity indefinitely, but we're coming into a period where we typically see more sales activity as well.

Come back later this week, and I'll have a few choice words about short sales. I'll try to keep the language family friendly.

Focus On Southside Lompoc

Greetings from beautiful & sunny San Diego. At least I'm assuming that it's sunny - I've spent almost all of the past couple of days holed up in meeting rooms at our California Association of REALTOR® business meetings. At least I get to go out and wander around the Gaslamp Quarter a bit at night.

Before I head out and get a bite to eat tonight, I thought I'd take a little time out for you, my loyal readers (hey, there might be more than one), and give you a neighborhood update on the Southside. For some background on the area and a , you can refer back to my first post on it from a couple of years ago.

We actually have a fair bit of inventory here at the moment, and here's something I don't get to report every day: None of our active listings are REO's. We have 15 active listings, and 5 of them are short sales, and the rest are non-distressed sales. That changes a bit when we look at the sales activity, however.

We have 6 contingent sales in the area (1 REO/5 SS) and 4 pending sales (2 REO/2 Trad). Sales over the past three months have been a little light, with 9 sold units (4 REO/2 SS/3 Trad). It's kind of interesting to look at that - at least for now, it seems that we've eaten through a fair bit of our distressed inventory here. I'm sure we'll see more REO's in the active listings, and it probably won't be all that long before a few come on. I can identify 7 properties fitting the criteria I'm using here that have gone back to the bank but are not yet listed.

Looking at values, it appears that despite an increase in REO's in the sold units, prices have remained fairly flat overall in the area. No big surprise - the market as a whole seems to have stabilized at a pretty good, affordable level over the past 12-18 months.

I think I'm going to get on my soapbox next week and rail about some short sale issues. I haven't had a good rant in a while... You don't want to miss that.

Monday Morning Numbers 1/24/11

Well, that wasn't so good now, was it? I wonder if Caleb Hanie has any idea of how close he came to never having to buy a drink in Chicago? At least now you won't have to read about Bears football when you come here. At least until September...

Let's take a look at our market stats for this week:

Active Listings: 119

Contingent Listings: 36

Pending Listings: 45 (22.5% of the inventory)

New listings: 5

Months of inventory: 5.9
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.

Inventory dropped slightly in a week with very light listing activity. Other than that - say it with me - no big changes this week. Part of the reason we had light listing activity was that we had no new REO listings for the week, and only one of the five was a short sale.

Since I didn't get the Southside update done last week, I'll see if I can get it in early this week. I'm headed down to San Diego to do the state director thing this week, but I should be able to fit in a little bit of blog work.

2010 Year In Review

I love it when I can get a news story to lead right into something that I was going to blog about anyway. Today we got a report from the National Association of REALTORS® that 2010 had the lowest number of home sales since 1997. And once again, I get to point out that the real estate market is best looked at on a very local level.

When I look back at 2010 in the Lompoc Valley real estate market, I see it more in terms of two halves than as one whole. We had a very active first half of the year with very low inventory, and a relatively slower second half with inventory numbers edging up. On the whole, we had 431 sold units in 2010, which is almost identical to the numbers that we saw in 2008 (433) and 2009 (427). We had our "sky is falling" year back in 2007, when our volume dropped to 260 for the year. You know, what the heck, let me graph that for you by quarter. You know I loves my graphs...

Wow, look at 2006 & 2007 in that graph. You want to talk about weak home sales - that's downright anemic. So sure, the national numbers dropped off this year. I guess we were ahead of that trend here by a few years.

Let's get back to 2010. Even though the overall numbers are very close to the previous two years, when we break it down, it looks like we were much stronger than 2009 in the first half of the year, and much weaker in the second half. There's a very easy explanation for that. Those home buyer tax credits that the feds (and to a lesser extent, the state) worked like gangbusters. Those are gone now, and with the federal and state budgets being the train wrecks that they are right now, I wouldn't hold my breath for them coming back anytime soon.

Distressed properties continued to dominate the market, but not quite to the extent of the past couple of years. REO sales accounted for 48.5% of last year's sales, and short sales were at 20.1%. The REO numbers were down from 62.3% in 2009 and 59% in 2008 (although I didn't have CCRMLS numbers when I ran the 2008 numbers, so that was probably a bit higher). Even though short sales didn't gain as much ground as I thought they might, they still increased in market share from 13% in 2009 and 7.4% in 2008).

As the year went on, our raw number for inventory increased, as you'll see from this chart. I'd call it an explosion of inventory, except that it was so low to begin the year that we almost had nowhere to go but up at the beginning of the year. Our months of inventory also jumped. Both of those measures seem to have stabilized over the past couple of months, and we're at about a level where most in our industry think of as a balanced market.

What caused the inventory to rise? Well, the decreased number of sales in the second half of the year was a big contributing factor. And we saw a little heavier listing activity than we saw the previous year with 566 new listings on the market (up 11.4% from 2009). 32.3% of the new listings that came on the market were REO's, and 28.8% were short sales.

Looking ahead, the forecast is a little hazy. I'm pretty sure that we're going to continue to see the lion's share of our activity centered around distressed sales, and it seems likely that we'll continue to see a rise in short sales. Overall our prices have been flat for quite a while now, although it does seem like the higher price ranges might still be declining a bit while we might be seeing a mild recovery in the entry level houses. I suspect that if our employment stays status quo, our prices will likely stay pretty stable. I am a little concerned about interest rates - there is a lot of speculation that they'll start climbing again sometime this year. But you know what, I've been hearing that for two years now. It does seem inevitable that we'll see some upward movement in rates - c'mon, under 5%? Are you serious? And we've been here for quite a while. I doubt that a modest increase would have a big impact on our market, but if they get into the 6 range again, we could have a problem.

I'm working on Saturday (but not Sunday due to the Bears/Packers game), so I'll see if I can work in a Southside update for you.

Monday Morning Numbers 1/17/11

Oh, baby. Bears. Packers. NFC Championship. Sunday. Oh, baby.

Let's take a look at our market stats for this beautiful Monday morning:

Active Listings: 125

Contingent Listings: 35

Pending Listings: 44 (21.6% of the inventory)

New listings: 14

Months of inventory: 6.1
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.

We've had a pretty busy first two weeks of the year for new listings. The big bulk of these have been distressed sales - 6 of the 14 last week were REO's with another 4 short sales. But when I look at the four non-distressed listings that came on last week, it looks like 2 of them are investor flips of properties purchased either as trustee's sales or REO properties.

Since I didn't get to the 2010 wrap-up on Saturday, I'll try to get to it early this week, and then I'll see if I can fit in a neighborhood post later in the week.

2010 Fourth Quarter Update

Another quarter has gone in the books, and it's time again to step back and take a look at what happened in the Lompoc Valley real estate market over the past few months. My Monday Morning Numbers posts are great for keeping an eye on what's happening right now in the market, but I'm always happy when this time rolls around and I can step back and take a more comprehensive look at where we've been for the past few months.

Looking back at the fourth quarter, I'm seeing some changes that make me think that our market is shifting in some ways. For the most part, we're continuing to bounce along at about the same level as we have for quite a while now in terms of price. As I get into these numbers, I'll remind you that the first set of data that I have for you here is combined information from our local Lompoc Valley Association of REALTORS® MLS and Central Coast Regional MLS. Then I'll have a breakdown of some data that's just too time intensive to combine, and only comes from LVAOR.

We had a fairly light amount of activity last quarter with 94 sold units, down 22.3% from the same quarter in 2009. You may recall that we were down a bit back in the third quarter as well after a robust level of sales in the first half of the year. The tax credits that were being offered for home buyers drove a lot of demand, and when they expired we saw some decline in demand. We've gotten to a point now where the balance of inventory and demand is pretty much in line with historical norms.

Price levels still seem to be pretty stable when viewed across the board, as you'll see from this updated price per square foot chart. We edged up very slightly to about $142 per square foot on average in the market. The median price for single family home sales (not counting condos) jumped up a bit more to $229,900. When I look at those two charts, the thing that jumps out at me is how flat we've been for the past couple of years. I've said in the past that even looking at these numbers in an active quarter, we have a limited set of data. So I wouldn't put a lot of stock into any individual point on either of those charts, but over time they do a pretty good job of showing us some trends.

Looking at the mix of distressed and non-distressed sales, it appears that we're seeing a somewhat lower level of distressed property sales in our market. That said, distressed sales still dominate the market, with REO's accounting for 40.4% of sales, and short sales taking 20.2%. Neither of those numbers was significantly different from last quarter, but looking back a year things looked a bit different. In the fourth quarter of 2009, distressed sales combined to account for 75% of our market. A lower level of distressed sales - especially REO sales - would be a big boon to values in our market.

Now we'll get into the LVAOR-only numbers:

We saw a little shift in how sales were financed in the last quarter. Government backed loans continued to gain market share, with FHA accounting for 37.3%, and VA loans at 26.5%. Cash dropped off a little bit, down to 16.9% of the market, leaving us with 19.3% of the market financed with conventional mortgages. I suspect that there is a strong correlation between the drop in cash sales with the lower level of REO sales.

One of the things that results from shifting from a low-inventory market to a more balanced market is that market times get longer. We had a noticeable increase in median days on market for the fourth quarter, up to 36. That's not surprising given that we've seen an increase in inventory and a lower level of sales. Escrow times moved up a little bit as well to a median of 49 days. I would attribute that to a decrease in the number of cash transactions, which are typically much shorter escrows.

Another thing that shifted noticeably with the change in the market is the percentage of sales at or above list. Up until this quarter, we had been running in the 60-65% range for this measure for quite a while. In the fourth quarter, it dropped down to 41.5%. That's still a pretty respectable level. We aren't seeing multiple offers quite as frequently now as we were a year ago, so this is just another indication that things have settled down a bit.

I'm going to try to make time on Saturday to do a full year wrap-up of 2010. I've got some stuff on the schedule that might keep that from coming together, though, so it might slide to next week. Hey, it'll give you something to look forward to.

Monday Morning Numbers 1/10/11

Another new week dawns, and with it comes a fresh look at some Lompoc Valley real estate market stats:

Active Listings: 120

Contingent Listings: 37

Pending Listings: 42 (21.1% of the inventory)

New listings: 15

Months of inventory: 6.1
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.

Let's start a pool - how many times will I write "no big changes this week" in 2011? But here we are - most of these numbers are pretty close to where they've been over the past few weeks. We did have a pretty big week for new listings this week, and a small uptick in properties under contract for sale (contingent and pending). Distressed sales were big again this week among new listings, with 4 REO's and 6 short sales.

Over the next few days I'll be cobbling together some of the 4th quarter market numbers for a wrap-up of that quarter, and then I'll have a 2010 year in review shortly after that. Come back later this week for those posts.

Focus On Mission Hills

OK, so my mid-week post is late again. I was out of town for most of the week. So shoot me. Let's take a look at the activity in Mission Hills this week. For some background on the area, check out my first post on the neighborhood from 2009.

For the first time that I can recall since I started writing these area specific "Focus On" posts, I have a neighborhood that is completely, 100% saturated with distressed property activity. Part of that might be because it's been a very light activity area. So light, in fact, that I had to expand out to my secondary MLS to find a couple more properties.

We have a whopping 2 active listings on the market here at the moment, 1 REO and 1 short sale. Contract activity is a little sparse as well, with 2 contingent listings (both short sales) and 3 pending sales (2 REO/1 SS).

Sales activity has been high relative to those numbers, with 7 sold units in the past three months (6 REO/1 SS). For quite a while, it seemed like this area was holding value a little better than the rest of the market, but right now the numbers would indicate that we might be seeing some price erosion. A big part of that goes to property condition, though. Most of these sales have been pretty rough. Most appraisers will tell you that they try to avoid using REO properties in an area when appraising a short sale or traditional sale, but when an area is saturated they have to use them and try to adjust. If 6 out of 7 doesn't qualify as saturation, I don't know what does.

Next week I should be getting the 2010 4th quarter wrap up together, and possibly the 2010 year in review right on its heels. Make sure you check in for that. I'll try not to keep you waiting until Sunday again...

Monday Morning Numbers 1/3/11

Happy New Year! Hope you didn't overindulge on Friday night - or if you did, at least that you've recovered by now. Let's take a look at our first market stats of 2011:

Active Listings: 122

Contingent Listings: 32

Pending Listings: 40 (20.6% of the inventory)

New listings: 9

Months of inventory: 5.9
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.

It might be a brand new year, but these look a lot like last year's numbers. We had more new listings last week than I would have expected given that it was a holiday week. My first thought would have been that they were heavily REO listings, but no - 6 of the 9 were short sales. Interesting. It used to be that we would see a whole bunch of expired listings at the end of the year, and our inventory would take a minor dip. But the old norms have gone out the window in this market, as I've said a few times in the past.

I didn't get to a mid (or even late) week post last week. C'est la vie. Later this week I'll work on an update on Mission Hills activity.