This week we're taking a look at our condo market. I use "condo" as a general term to indicate a unit that shares a wall with a neighbor. If you want to nitpick about it, a lot of what I'm including here aren't, technically speaking, condos. That's OK, nitpick away. It's my blog and I've got a thick skin... Oh, and I also don't include Country Club "cluster homes". Those are kind of a unique animal, and they'd significantly skew the numbers.
We have a lot of condo inventory available today - 21 active listings. These are heavy in distressed sales, with 8 REO's, 5 short sales, and 8 non-distressed. The 8 non-distressed are kind of interesting, though. Of those, at least 4 are owned by investors who picked them up at a foreclosure sale to flip. So in reality, we could very easily have as many as 12 REO condos on the market if we didn't have the flip investors.
Sales activity has been pretty steady in recent months for these units, despite some challenges with getting financing on them. We have 8 contingent sales, dominated as per usual by short sales (1 REO/7 SS). There are 5 pending sales as well, and these are almost all REO's (4, with one investor flip property as well). We've had 9 sales over the past three months (5 REO, 1 SS, and 3 non-distressed). Again, it appears that all 3 of the non-distressed sales here were investor flips.
Until I took a look at these numbers, I really hadn't picked up on just how heavy our condo market is with investor flips. It kind of makes sense if you think about it. These are typically lower price points than houses, ergo they come with less risk. Mind you, they come with less of a payoff at the end as well, but a lot of these investors aren't trying to hit a home run with every investment property that they pick up.
Values on condos appear to be holding pretty steady over the past few months, with a slightly lower median sale price but a slightly higher average price per square foot. I don't think that any segment of our market fell harder than this one, so it's good to see things settling down. We still have a lot of challenges in the segment, especially financing problems, but we found a price level that seems to work well for this market.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Monday Morning Numbers 3/28/11
Good morning again. Remember last week when I said that my brackets were shot? Well, hey, now everybody's brackets are down the tubes! I was ahead of my time! Let's take a look at this week's market stats:
Active Listings: 153
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
Another big week for new listings has pushed our inventory up again. Of the 17 new listings that hit the market last week 7 of them were bank owned properties, which might be an indication that we're seeing some of the small influx of those listings that I thought we might see a few weeks ago.
I didn't have a late week post last week, as you might have noted. I started to write something, but it turned out to be a half-formed thought that wasn't going anywhere. I usually don't let that stop me, but this was going to turn out to be a pretty pointless ramble, so I killed it off. I'll go back to the rotation of neighborhood/market segment posts and cover condos later this week. Maybe by next week I'll figure out how to say what I was going to say in some intelligible form.
Active Listings: 153
Contingent Listings: 34
Pending Listings: 40 (17.6% of the inventory)
New listings: 17
Months of inventory: 7.4Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
Another big week for new listings has pushed our inventory up again. Of the 17 new listings that hit the market last week 7 of them were bank owned properties, which might be an indication that we're seeing some of the small influx of those listings that I thought we might see a few weeks ago.
I didn't have a late week post last week, as you might have noted. I started to write something, but it turned out to be a half-formed thought that wasn't going anywhere. I usually don't let that stop me, but this was going to turn out to be a pretty pointless ramble, so I killed it off. I'll go back to the rotation of neighborhood/market segment posts and cover condos later this week. Maybe by next week I'll figure out how to say what I was going to say in some intelligible form.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Monday Morning Numbers 3/21/11
I don't know about you, but my brackets are completely shot. I will at least lay claim to having Richmond & Florida St. in the Sweet Sixteen. Of course, I also have to lay claim to having Pittsburgh and Purdue in the Final Four... Oh, to hell with it, let's look at some numbers:
Active Listings: 142
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
For the first time since April 2008 we are above 7 months of inventory. A big part of that is due to slow first quarter sales so far this year, although our raw inventory is up quite a bit from what we've seen for the past couple of years. The silver lining here might be that our pending sales have started to edge up over the past couple of weeks.
I still haven't figured out the topic for later this week. When inspiration strikes me, I'll come up with something and bang it out for you.
Active Listings: 142
Contingent Listings: 35
Pending Listings: 40 (18.4% of the inventory)
New listings: 11
Months of inventory: 7.3Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
For the first time since April 2008 we are above 7 months of inventory. A big part of that is due to slow first quarter sales so far this year, although our raw inventory is up quite a bit from what we've seen for the past couple of years. The silver lining here might be that our pending sales have started to edge up over the past couple of weeks.
I still haven't figured out the topic for later this week. When inspiration strikes me, I'll come up with something and bang it out for you.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Focus on Country Club & Mesa Oaks
This week we're updating activity in our two traditional high end neighborhoods, Mesa Oaks and the Country Club. For a little background on these areas and a description of the homes included, go back and check out my first post on them from a couple of years ago.
It's kind of funny - last time I reported on these areas I noted that it appeared that we had some increasing inventory despite an overall market trend to lower inventory. This time around, we've switched that. Now we have a somewhat decreasing inventory level despite an overall market trend to increasing inventory. As of this afternoon we have 11 active units on the market. Distressed properties aren't a big chunk of that at the moment with no active REO listings (although one did just expire and will probably come back soon) and only 3 short sales, leaving us with 8 traditional sellers on the market.
Sales activity has been a bit better than it was last time I reported on the area. We only have one contingent sale at the moment - an REO. There are 4 pending sales, one of which is an REO and the other 3 traditional sales. We've had 6 sales in the area over the past three months, and this time it looks like we're a little heavier on distressed properties (3 REO/1 SS/2 Trad). Comparing the past three months with the previous three months, it appears that we've been pretty flat in prices, but that's based on a pretty small sample size.
Next week I'm thinking I'll have to get outside the box and come up with something new to write about. I'm just not sure what that's going to be yet. You'll find out when I do, I guess.
It's kind of funny - last time I reported on these areas I noted that it appeared that we had some increasing inventory despite an overall market trend to lower inventory. This time around, we've switched that. Now we have a somewhat decreasing inventory level despite an overall market trend to increasing inventory. As of this afternoon we have 11 active units on the market. Distressed properties aren't a big chunk of that at the moment with no active REO listings (although one did just expire and will probably come back soon) and only 3 short sales, leaving us with 8 traditional sellers on the market.
Sales activity has been a bit better than it was last time I reported on the area. We only have one contingent sale at the moment - an REO. There are 4 pending sales, one of which is an REO and the other 3 traditional sales. We've had 6 sales in the area over the past three months, and this time it looks like we're a little heavier on distressed properties (3 REO/1 SS/2 Trad). Comparing the past three months with the previous three months, it appears that we've been pretty flat in prices, but that's based on a pretty small sample size.
Next week I'm thinking I'll have to get outside the box and come up with something new to write about. I'm just not sure what that's going to be yet. You'll find out when I do, I guess.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Monday Morning Numbers 3/14/11
Good morning once again! Anybody have any tips on filling out brackets this year? Because I looked at them last night, and I could see any number of toss-up games this time. Should be a crazy few weeks. Let's take a look at this week's market stats:
Active Listings: 140
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
Our inventory continued to increase this week on another strong week for new listings. We've had 31 new listings over the past couple of weeks, which is the highest two week total we've seen in quite a while. Of those, 9 were REO listings. On the surface that doesn't sound like a lot, but that's a higher percentage than we've been seeing so far this year.
Later this week I'll cover Mesa Oaks & Country Club activity.
Active Listings: 140
Contingent Listings: 38
Pending Listings: 36 (16.8% of the inventory)
New listings: 14
Months of inventory: 6.8Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
Our inventory continued to increase this week on another strong week for new listings. We've had 31 new listings over the past couple of weeks, which is the highest two week total we've seen in quite a while. Of those, 9 were REO listings. On the surface that doesn't sound like a lot, but that's a higher percentage than we've been seeing so far this year.
Later this week I'll cover Mesa Oaks & Country Club activity.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Focus on Foreclosure Activity
Hey, remember a while back when we were hearing about this huge wave of foreclosures that were set to hit? And remember me telling you that I really didn't think it was all that big a thing locally? Well so far, it appears that I'm right. I like it when that happens.
Foreclosure activity has been relatively choppy over the past few months - we'll frequently get a month where one of the indicators is up, then a month where it drops off. On the whole, we've been fairly stable. There are a couple of things that might indicate a bit of an increase in new REO listings coming on the market. Let's start with a chart.
I've published this chart periodically over the past couple of years, so it might look familiar if you've been reading this blog. If you look at that red line that stands out from the rest of it, you'll see that our unresolved trustee's sales have gone back up to around the peak level after dropping off a few months ago. That's one of the key indicators that I look at when I'm trying to forecast what we're going to see in terms of REO listings over the next several months. That trend would indicate a potential increase in foreclosures ahead.
One of the other things that I keep an eye on are properties that have gone back to the bank but have not yet been listed. I kind of wish that I'd started running that number monthly a while back so I could chart it. But I didn't - it's so unlike me to miss an opportunity to chart something - because it's a little bit of a chore to reconcile that list regularly. But I can tell you that if I did chart that number, it would be a pretty flat chart. Since I started looking at it back in March 2009, that number has tracked very steadily between 55-65 units. As of today, we're at 64 units, which is on the high end of the scale. What I've usually seen when it gets to about that level is a small spike in REO listings over a few weeks. So there's another indication that we could see a few more bank owned properties coming in the shorter term.
As of this afternoon, REO listings only account for about 19% of our combined active and contingent listings, and about 40% of our pending listings. Both of those numbers are pretty close to where they've been for a few quarters now. And year to date, only about 23% of all new listings that have come on the market have been REO's. That remains pretty close to where it was when I last looked at these numbers back in September, and down significantly from a couple of years ago.
Even though I'm seeing what looks like some potential for a modest increase in REO listings in the next few months, I still don't see the big wave coming at us. I should caution, however, that we still have a significant equity shortfall in our market, with still around 40% of our homes having more debt than value. But I've said this repeatedly and I'm sticking to it: We're more likely to see a big increase in short sales ahead than REO's.
Foreclosure activity has been relatively choppy over the past few months - we'll frequently get a month where one of the indicators is up, then a month where it drops off. On the whole, we've been fairly stable. There are a couple of things that might indicate a bit of an increase in new REO listings coming on the market. Let's start with a chart.
I've published this chart periodically over the past couple of years, so it might look familiar if you've been reading this blog. If you look at that red line that stands out from the rest of it, you'll see that our unresolved trustee's sales have gone back up to around the peak level after dropping off a few months ago. That's one of the key indicators that I look at when I'm trying to forecast what we're going to see in terms of REO listings over the next several months. That trend would indicate a potential increase in foreclosures ahead.
One of the other things that I keep an eye on are properties that have gone back to the bank but have not yet been listed. I kind of wish that I'd started running that number monthly a while back so I could chart it. But I didn't - it's so unlike me to miss an opportunity to chart something - because it's a little bit of a chore to reconcile that list regularly. But I can tell you that if I did chart that number, it would be a pretty flat chart. Since I started looking at it back in March 2009, that number has tracked very steadily between 55-65 units. As of today, we're at 64 units, which is on the high end of the scale. What I've usually seen when it gets to about that level is a small spike in REO listings over a few weeks. So there's another indication that we could see a few more bank owned properties coming in the shorter term.
As of this afternoon, REO listings only account for about 19% of our combined active and contingent listings, and about 40% of our pending listings. Both of those numbers are pretty close to where they've been for a few quarters now. And year to date, only about 23% of all new listings that have come on the market have been REO's. That remains pretty close to where it was when I last looked at these numbers back in September, and down significantly from a couple of years ago.
Even though I'm seeing what looks like some potential for a modest increase in REO listings in the next few months, I still don't see the big wave coming at us. I should caution, however, that we still have a significant equity shortfall in our market, with still around 40% of our homes having more debt than value. But I've said this repeatedly and I'm sticking to it: We're more likely to see a big increase in short sales ahead than REO's.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Monday Morning Numbers 3/7/11
Good morning, Happy Monday, and laissez les bon temps rouler! (Mardi Gras is tomorrow, for those who don't know.) Let's take a look at our market stats for this Fat Monday:
Active Listings: 133
Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
A pretty big week for new listings brought our inventory level back up to about the level it had been two weeks ago. It was kind of an odd thing to watch as it developed - for about 2-3 days, we got a big influx of listings, then it stopped for a couple of days. Distressed properties make up the bulk of the new listings with 5 REO's and 7 short sales in the mix.
Speaking of distressed properties, the topic for later this week is foreclosure activity. I'm waiting for some numbers that I typically see around the 10th or 11th of the month, so it might be Friday or Saturday before I post that. Make sure you check back in late in the week.
Active Listings: 133
Contingent Listings: 40
Pending Listings: 33 (16.0% of the inventory)
New listings: 17
Months of inventory: 6.6Click here for the updated price per square foot chart.
A pretty big week for new listings brought our inventory level back up to about the level it had been two weeks ago. It was kind of an odd thing to watch as it developed - for about 2-3 days, we got a big influx of listings, then it stopped for a couple of days. Distressed properties make up the bulk of the new listings with 5 REO's and 7 short sales in the mix.
Speaking of distressed properties, the topic for later this week is foreclosure activity. I'm waiting for some numbers that I typically see around the 10th or 11th of the month, so it might be Friday or Saturday before I post that. Make sure you check back in late in the week.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Focus on North Lompoc
This week we're back around to taking a look at a market area, specifically the north side of the city. For a little background on the area, refer back to my first post on the area from a couple of years ago.
We've been gaining a little bit of inventory in this area in recent months. As of this afternoon, we have 14 active listings - 2 REO's, 6 short sales, and 6 traditional sellers. We also have 8 contingent listings, and as per usual they are dominated by short sales (7 of those and one REO).
Sales activity has slowed considerably since I last reported on the area back in September. We only have 4 pending units in the area (0 REO/1 SS/3 Trad), and we've had 7 sales in the past three months (2 REO/4 SS/1 Trad).
Because sales have dropped off as much as they have, it's a little difficult to nail down a price trend. On a pretty small sample, it would seem that we're seeing a slight decline in prices in the area.
Next week I'll get out an update on foreclosure activity in our market.
We've been gaining a little bit of inventory in this area in recent months. As of this afternoon, we have 14 active listings - 2 REO's, 6 short sales, and 6 traditional sellers. We also have 8 contingent listings, and as per usual they are dominated by short sales (7 of those and one REO).
Sales activity has slowed considerably since I last reported on the area back in September. We only have 4 pending units in the area (0 REO/1 SS/3 Trad), and we've had 7 sales in the past three months (2 REO/4 SS/1 Trad).
Because sales have dropped off as much as they have, it's a little difficult to nail down a price trend. On a pretty small sample, it would seem that we're seeing a slight decline in prices in the area.
Next week I'll get out an update on foreclosure activity in our market.
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